Ryan Huang

University of Manchester · 2029

Fundamental research on China and Asian consumer businesses.

I read the filings first, build my own models, and use Mandarin to go to primary sources most London analysts can't. Below: a tool I built to track China's housing market through a geopolitical lens, my investment memos, and my CV.

Tool

China Property Monitor 中国房价监测

New and resale home prices across the 70 cities China's statistics bureau tracks, mapped against the geopolitical forces that could move them. Pick a city, set a scenario, and run the analysis.

First-tier new homes, y/y—Aug 2026
First-tier resale, y/y—Aug 2026
Cities flat or rising, m/m—Aug 2026, new homes
Cities down y/y—Jun 2026, new homes
New homes, year on year

Circles sized by tier. Drag to pan, scroll to zoom, click a city to analyse it. Diamonds mark the scenario factors you've switched on. Taiwan is shaded separately and is not in the NBS sample.

Scenario

Analysis

Offline model
Method and sources

Prices. City data is from the National Bureau of Statistics 70-city release for June 2026, the latest with a city-level table here; the headline strip uses the August 2026 release (published 15 September). NBS reports indices where the previous period is 100. NBS June release · August summary (Xinhua).

Geopolitical exposure. Scores from 0 to 3 are my own judgement of how directly each city is exposed to a factor, based on its industrial base and location. They are a framework, not data.

Model. The 12-month view is half the trailing year-on-year change plus a quarter of the latest month annualised, then each scenario factor adds intensity ÷ 2 × exposure × a fixed sensitivity. It's deliberately simple so the assumptions are visible. The AI analysis sends the same inputs to Claude, which searches recent news and gives its own view. None of this is investment advice.

Research

Investment memos

Buy-side memos written from primary sources: annual reports, 20-F filings, earnings calls and Chinese-language coverage. Each one states what the market is missing and what would prove me wrong.

TCOM · 9961.HKWorking thesis

Trip.com Group 携程

The market prices Trip.com as a mature domestic travel agent with a regulator hanging over it. I think it is a two-engine business: the international platform is now growing over 50% a year, and the antitrust penalty turns an open-ended risk into a paid, known cost.

Q2 26 net revenue
RMB15.7bn +6%
Adj. EBITDA
RMB4.6bn
SAMR penalty
RMB5.2bn
Cash & investments
RMB100.5bn
Read the memo

The business

Trip.com runs China's largest online travel platform (Ctrip, Qunar) and a fast-growing international brand, Trip.com, sold outside China. It earns commissions on hotels and air tickets, plus packaged tours and corporate travel. In Q2 2026 accommodation brought in RMB6.6bn (+6%), transport ticketing RMB5.4bn (−1%), packaged tours RMB1.2bn (+8%) and corporate travel RMB0.8bn (+11%).

What the market is missing

  • The international platform is a second engine. Management reported international platform revenue up more than 50% year on year, and inbound travel into China growing at a high double-digit rate. The domestic business funds this expansion from its own cash flow.
  • The regulatory risk has a price now. SAMR's anti-monopoly penalty of RMB5.2bn was booked in Q2, turning the quarter into a RMB2.4bn net loss. Excluding it, net income was about RMB2.7bn. A known one-off charge is easier to value than an open investigation.
  • The balance sheet absorbs it easily. RMB100.5bn in cash and investments against a RMB5.2bn fine.

What would prove me wrong

  • International growth slows below roughly 25% while sales and marketing spend keeps rising.
  • Remedies attached to the SAMR decision force lower domestic hotel commissions.
  • Outbound Chinese travel stalls on consumer weakness or visa and geopolitical friction.

Valuation

In progress. I'm building the model from the 20-F: revenue by segment, take rate, margins and cash conversion, benchmarked against my Booking Holdings DCF.

Figures: Trip.com Q2 2026 results, released September 2026. Investor relations

3690.HKWorking thesis

Meituan 美团

Consensus treats 2025's delivery price war with Alibaba and JD as a permanent reset of Meituan's earnings. I think it was a cyclical trough: unit economics are already recovering, and Keeta abroad is being valued at close to nothing.

Q2 26 revenue
RMB104.6bn +14.4%
Core local commerce OP
RMB5.7bn
New initiatives loss
RMB1.7bn
Adj. net profit
RMB2.5bn
Read the memo

The business

Meituan is China's largest local-services platform: food delivery, in-store dining and hotel bookings, and instant retail. Core local commerce made RMB71.5bn of revenue in Q2 2026 (+10.1%). New initiatives, mainly grocery retail and the overseas delivery brand Keeta, made RMB33.1bn (+25%).

What the market is missing

  • The subsidy war is fading. Management describes the industry moving away from subsidy-heavy competition, and delivery revenue went from shrinking to growing 13% in a quarter. Meituan kept its lead in higher-value orders, where the profit is.
  • Keeta is starting to work. Hong Kong is profitable and Saudi Arabia turned profitable in July 2026, 22 months after launch. Brazil is early. The market gives this little value.
  • Losses have a ceiling. Management guides that new initiatives will lose no more in 2026 than in 2025.

What the headline hides

Q2's reported operating profit included a one-off gain of roughly RMB3.5bn from closing a grocery unit. Stripping that out, the core business is near breakeven. Recovery is under way but not yet proven.

What would prove me wrong

  • Alibaba or JD restart heavy subsidies and delivery profit per order falls again.
  • Douyin keeps taking share in in-store services, the highest-margin segment.
  • Rider social-insurance costs rise faster than pricing can absorb.
  • Keeta expansion into new markets burns cash without a path to breakeven.

Valuation

In progress: a sum of the parts with net cash, core local commerce on a trough multiple, and Keeta as an option.

Figures: Meituan Q2 2026 results and earnings call; one-off gain per Dolphin Research. Investor relations

CV

Curriculum vitae

Open full CV (PDF)

Education

The University of Manchester2025 – 2029

Business and Management with Chinese, including a year abroad in China

St Olave's Grammar SchoolOrpington

Research

  • Trip.com investment memo (in progress)
  • Meituan investment memo (in progress)
  • Booking Holdings investment memo and DCF
  • SpaceX equity research initiation, Neutral
  • USD/CNH and GBP/USD macro notes
  • China Property Monitor, above
  • Macro research dashboard in Python and SQL

Certifications

  • Eastdil Secured Real Estate Finance Training: CRE valuation, DCF, amortisation
  • Financial Edge Portfolio Management micro-degree
  • Fidelity International job simulation (Forage)

Languages

  • Mandarin Chinese, studied to degree level
Contact

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